New Delhi: India’s wheat planting is expected to reach a record level during the 2026-27 rabi season, although the final harvest will depend on weather conditions through April-May 2027, which could be influenced by the ongoing El Niño event, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has said.
In its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, the FAO said planting of the largely irrigated 2027 winter wheat crop is underway across the Far East, including India, under generally adequate soil moisture conditions. The crop is expected to be harvested between March and June 2027.
The report noted that India's wheat production reached 117.19 million tonnes in 2025 and a record 120.7 million tonnes in 2026, compared with the five-year average of 111.8 million tonnes.
The FAO attributed the expected expansion in wheat acreage to government incentives, including a remunerative minimum support price (MSP) and fertiliser subsidies.
Wheat Acreage Expected to Rise Across the Region
The FAO expects wheat planting in mainland China, the Far East's largest producer, to remain close to its five-year average.
In Pakistan, acreage is forecast to be above average, with record domestic wheat prices likely to encourage farmers to expand cultivation. Other countries in the region, where wheat production is relatively limited, are also expected to record above-average planting areas amid strong domestic demand for wheat-based products.
El Niño Could Influence Wheat Production
While the outlook for planting remains positive, the FAO said final production will depend on weather conditions through April-May 2027. These conditions are likely to be influenced by the ongoing El Niño event.
El Niño is typically associated with above-average rainfall between October and April across several important wheat-growing regions, including the Korean Peninsula, central-eastern mainland China, central and northern Pakistan, and most of Afghanistan.
The agency noted that abundant rainfall could support crop development but may also increase the risk of localised flooding.
In higher-altitude and higher-latitude areas, some of the expected precipitation is likely to fall as snow. Adequate snow cover can protect overwintering crops from frost damage, while spring snowmelt may improve soil moisture and replenish reservoirs, supporting spring and summer crops in 2027.
The FAO's assessment points to favourable prospects for wheat planting in India, but the eventual production level will become clearer as the crop progresses and weather conditions unfold over the coming months.
